
Yesterday, blogger Joe Scott, who also works for DA Steve Cooley, wrote that “Gnomes of Spring Street” have told him which three people are the finalists in the process to select a Chief of the LAPD to succeed Bill Bratton.
Then Scott names the three men who have generally been considered to be the most out in front of the front runners: Jim McDonnell, First Assistant Chief and Chief of Staff; Earl Paysinger, Assistant Chief in charge of operations; and Charlie Beck, Deputy Chief and Chief of Detectives.
Scott’s blog post was linked to and quoted from a lot yesterday.
Yet there are a few things that suggest he was rather hasty in posting his list.
1. For one thing, the LA police commission just began its interviews of the 12 pre-finalist finalists.
(At least we think there are 12 or around 12. Not even the finalists themselves were informed of the exact number. UPDATE: ABC7 says it’s 13. Eight being interviewed Wednesday, five Thursday. Along with other news crews, Channel 7 is camped outside the City Club on
Bunker Hill where the interviews are taking place.)
So if we are to believe Scott, the die is already cast, and the interviews are merely pro forma, which—by all accounts I’ve heard— is simply not true.
There are indeed some strong winds at the backs of each one of those three, and they could very easily be the triumvirate handed to the mayor in early November.
Chief of Detectives Charlie Beck is a cops-cop and the choice favored by the mayor’s chief of staff, Jeff Carr, and by Connie Rice. Beck has been Bratton’s pick as the Can-Do guy to solve such vexing problems as the rape kit backlog.
Jim McDonnell is at the top of a lot of lists, inside and outside the department. He is the skilled big picture theorist among the three, and is usually the name mentioned first by the uniforms on the street.
The well-liked former head of the department’s complicated South Bureau, during recent years, Earl Paysinger has been the man firmly in charge of operations during an extended period of dropping crime so commands much respect and has his own group of very strong supporters.
Yet to believe that anybody’s “gnomes” can predict all three as a lock at this point in the process is foolish. Plus it does not take into account all the various puzzle pieces that comprise the whole picture.
2. Look, for example, at the last shortlist for chief that an LA police commission sent to an LA mayor.
In the fall of 2002, when Bill Bratton was selected, his closest rivals from the department—people like George Gascon and Jim McDonnell— weren’t on the final list of three. Instead, the commission delivered along with Bratton’s resume, the stacked deck of Philadelphia’s former Chief John Timony and Oxnard Police Chief Art Lopez (a former LAPD deputy chief). The two were both capable men. In this situation, they were also ringers.
3. In the wide canvassing I’ve done in and around City Hall, and among the rank and file of the department, another of the names that continues to come up with frequency by street cops as one of the front-runners, is that of Assistant Chief Sharon Papa who, as the former chief of the MTA police, is the only person in the group to have had her own department to command. Do I think she’ll be the final pick? Probably not. At least, not this time. But could she be on the short list? Sure. Easily.
4. Finally, a dark horse in the mix is Deputy Chief Sergio Diaz. He was late to throw his name in, but during a short period he too has gathered a significant list of supporters from inside and outside the department. Given his depth and breadth of experience, and his performance as the problem solver head of Central Bureau (home of Avenues gang, et al), in many ways Diaz combines the main strengths of McDonnell and Beck, so cannot be crossed off either.
5. Given the talents of our homegrown candidates, the frequently expressed wishes of our very popular outgoing chief, and the unambiguous desires of the rank and file, the chances range from unlikely to impossible that Bratton’s replacement will be someone from outside the department. Yet an outsider could be among the three, just to show that the commission has fairly considered all comers.
So, yeah, the short list may, indeed, be made up of the three Scott mentions.
But I would energetically advise betting the ranch on it just yet.
PS: Joel Rubin has his own smart and well-reported take on the front runners, which is a must read on the topic.
He rightly mentions Deputy Chief Sandy Jo MacArthur, head of training division, as another dark horse. If I were to personally pick the person who has the best shot of being the department’s first woman chief, it would be MacArthur. Also, Rubin’s suggestion that the chief is quietly putting in a word for Beck is my read as well. And, the fact that the mayor put Connie Rice on his picking-the-chief advisory panel could be telling.
In short, there are very strong trends, but the jury’s still out.
PPS: The Alex Sanchez bail hearing post is still coming later.