Perhaps there’s still enough room for a miracle to occur. But, the odds, right now, are against it.
With approximately 64,000 votes yet to count, as of this Friday afternoon, two-term Los Angeles District Attorney Jackie Lacey has just moved a couple of razor edges farther away from the 50 percent-plus-one she needs to prevent a runoff election in November.
As you can see from the graphic above, Lacey has a healthy 48.79 percent of the vote, almost as much as the vote totals of her two challengers put together.
But almost isn’t good enough. And with each vote count since the very first on election day, her percentage of the vote has edged down just the tiniest bit. Yet, those tiny bits have added up, produced a trend, and the trend appears to have all but nailed the certainty of a runoff.
In the previous count, which was released last Friday evening, Lacy’s count was 799,898 votes, which was 49.25 percent of the total.
In the count before that one, her percentage was 49.94 percent of the vote. Going still one more count in the past, she was at 50.00 percent. (Vote counts are released on Tuesdays and Fridays.)
In other words, each time it was only a razer’s edge of difference. But those razor’s edges have been going the wrong direction for Lacey.
As has been the case since election day, former longtime cop and retired San Francisco DA, George Gascón has remained in the second position. And today his portion of the vote total has edged up one more sliver to 28.18 percent of the vote (up from 27.98 percent last Friday).
Former public defender, Rachel Rossi is still close behind Gascón, yet not close enough, now that we’re near to the end.
Still, Rossi’s percentage also rose a bit, from 22.78 percent on Friday to 27.98 percent today, continuing to show that she has had a strong appeal, especially given that Lacey and Gascón both had supporters who spent much more money that Rossi could.
The good news for Lacey, 62, in this high stakes, much-watched race is that if her strengths hold with voters in November she has a very good chance of winning a third term.
But, this is a volatile contest with candidates who each draw lots of high emotions, pro and con, with many supporters for each of the three candidates believing that the future of LA County’s justice system is truly at stake in this race.
And while Gascón, 65, didn’t draw as many votes in the primary as his supporters believed he would, he is undeniably a strong candidate with a formidable biography, meaning that, with the right kind of campaign and exposure to voters, he may end up being the one who attracts the needed votes to win in November.