Despite alarming incidents of drug-cartel-fueled violence near the Mexican border, the crime rate in the state of Arizona is the lowest it has been in 40 years—as is true in many areas of the country.
At the same time, the Hispanic immigrant population has risen precipitously.
Anyone who bothers to spend five minutes on the computer doing research, has access to those two facts.
Nevertheless, those with political axes to grind have loudly attributed most of Arizona’s social ills—-particularly crime (and most particularly drug-related crime)—to immigrants from Mexico and Central America.
The “crime wave” hysteria was a large part of what fueled the passage of SB 1070.
However, a study just released by well-regarded researchers Mike Males and Dan Macallair, both of Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice, digs even deeper into the issue, and lays out for us, in hard numbers, the relationship between crime and immigration—legal and not—in Arizona.
The study, which is rather prosaically titled “Scapegoating Immigrants: Arizona’s Real Crisis Is Rooted in Residents’ Soaring Drug Abuse,“ finds the following:
Claims that Hispanic immigrants, both documented and undocumented, are creating a crime and drug wave are contrary to the best information available from Arizona and national law enforcement, public health, and drug abuse monitoring agencies. By the best evidence, Hispanics, regardless of status, constitute the leading edge of Arizona’s rapidly declining crime rate and a decreasing proportion of Arizona’s rapidly increasing drug abuse crisis. The large influx of Hispanic immigrants has promoted decreased crime, violence, and drug abuse compared to trends among Arizona’s existing resident populations.
Read the rest of the details here.
AND SPEAKING OF NUMBERS, crime may be down, but this year border deaths in Arizona are expected to break records.
The angry right doesn’t deal in facts, Celeste.
If you happen to examine the studies data closely, what you will find is a conclusion based on politics while ignoring what really happened in Arizona from 2005-2010. The most important factor being that Hispanics left Arizona in droves starting in 2006 as the construction industry dipped to 6% of what they were in 2005, however the study projects a 21% increase in the Hispanic population from 2005-2010 skewing all the per-capita conclusions.
The simple reality is that Hispanics (especially Illegal Hispanics) left Arizona starting in 2006 for jobs in other states that is why the number of Hispanics crimes decreased.
Hispanic Offenses totaled 94,574 in 2002 and grew to 107,786 in 2009 (page 5). The study then divides this number by an imaginary number of Hispanics based on previous trends forgetting that many legal and illegal Hispanics left Arizona beginning in 2006, which is when Hispanic drug death peaked per capita (page 6).
A valid concern of Arizona is the drug trade that has grown in their state, which is visible in the rise of illicit drug deaths, much of which comes over the border. (De-criminalizing drugs would go a long way to dealing with this problem, but that is a whole different issue).
The facts on the ground that this study ignored to make their political point.
1) The Hispanic (Illegal) population largely follows the availability of jobs such as construction and farming and the study assumes a dramatic rise in Hispanic 2005-2010population to match the previous five years.
2) On page 3 of the study you will find the study saying the legal Hispanic population jumped from 1,688,754 in 2005 to 2,050,000 in 2010 about a 21% increase. This did not happen because of the economic downturn starting in 2006 in the construction industry.
3) About 94% of the construction jobs left the state between 2005 and 2009 (based on Maracopa county) a profession that is dominated by Hispanics. http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/bldgprmt/bldgdisp.pl
Chart showing construction dive – http://www.housingwire.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/NAHB-vs-Housing-Starts.jpg
How many crimes by illegal residents should we accept?
Phoenix (where I live) is now the kidnapping capital of the US, due to the illegal trade in immigrants (who are kidnapped by the smugglers). Kidnapping is considered a violent crime, and these people certainly suffer – and risk death at the hands of their captors.
There are occasional shootouts around here, some using automatic weapons (machine guns for the unaware gun-phobes), involving either drug or alien smugglers. These shootings endanger innocents.
25 miles from me, on federal land, are signs warning that travel in those areas is dangerous due to the illegals – which amounts to a unilateral surrender of national sovereignty to the criminals.
You can say all sorts of things with bogus statistics, but you cannot erase the actual crimes that would not happen if the illegals were not here.
That’s a number http://www.kpho.com/news/24668841/detail.htmlsubject to dispute regarding kidnappings.
John, the flaw in your argument is that it downplays crime committed by legal citizens, in its very nature. Would the family of a murder victim feel any better knowing the murderer was an American citizen? Knowing the bullet that pierced through their loved one’s skull and sent their brains flying on to the sidewalk was fired by an American citizen? Just seems like a flawed argument designed to stoke anger toward immigrants. If you’re going to work the crime angle, try to come up with crimes committed by illegals that aren’t committed by legal citizens. It’s a short list, if it even exists. Because I can’t think of any. Good luck.
So the arguement Sonny is forwarding is that since Americans commit the same crimes as illegals we should just turn our back to the fact if the border was 100% secured many, in fact thousands of dead American citizens would be among their families and loved ones today?
My point, Sure Fire, is that most people who die at the hands of illegal immigrants were playing ball with the wrong crowd in the first place. Yes, there are some innocent victims. But most are in the drug game. If it’s not an illegal immigrant that takes them out, it’s an American born gang banger. You live by the sword, you die by it. I think to take murder victims of illegal immigrants who were living on the wrong side of the law in the first place and use these instances to insinuate that crime would actually improve without illegal immigrants is disingenuous at best. As long as there is a street value for drugs and poverty in America, violent crime will go on, with or without a secured border.
Of course, there would actually be one way to seriously deter violent crime in America even in the midst of poverty and an underground drug market. Ban guns. Take them from everyone, period. That would work, too. But it would be unconstitutional. But then again…much about the war on drugs is unconstitutional, too. I mean, did our founding fathers view drugs as a threat? And surely people were finding ways to get high then. In fact, many historians would point out that opium, hemp, and even cocaine were used quite frequently then, possibly even by the founding fathers themselves. How else could they have stayed up that long to write the document?
Ask the Oakland PD what border Lovelle Mixon hopped across, Sure Fire.
Most are not in the drug game, that’s not even close to being true. Back that statement up with some facts. Your whole rap seems to be “Since Americans get killed all the time anyway why should it matter who does it”? You throw in this “playing ball with the wrong crowd in the first place” nonsense that doesn’t take into account a whole litany of circumstances and crimes that illegals commit, like many Americans do (I’ll give you that) that have nothing to do with the drug trade or the company one keeps. You just sweep these deaths to the curb to promote your own misguided, race comes first, philosophy which is more disingenuous than anything else I’ve seen here. It’s a sorry way to think in my world.
Yeah the answer is ban guns, sure. Nothing personal but did you really think that through? Should I name some illegals that have killed cops and innocents to throw in with your Lovelle Mixon line? It would be easy enough to do. I could toss it some rapists, pedophiles and drunk drivers that have killed people if you’d like.
A very weak response Sonny. I’m the first guy that would recognize the hard work done by the vast majority of illegals and it sounds like you’re the last that would shed a tear over the criminal types that bring their activity to this country. I guess we’re a bit different, I care and you don’t.
Of course I shed a tear for criminals. I’m an American. From Jessie James to John Gotti I just can’t get enough of the gangsters. I have a soft spot for Wall Street crooks, too. Always felt that if people were smarter, they wouldn’t just fork their money over to them. Kind of a two way street, no? Oh, and Hells Angels. What more can you say? Americana as apple pie. I named myself after Sonny Barger.
Ugh, but then came hip hop, Boyz N The Hood, Blood In Blood Out…what happened? Such scumbags are nothing to admire. And the fascination with this culture didn’t make your job any easier, did it? The mafiosi worked with the coppers. To the west coast gang bangers, you guys are nothing more than a rival gang. I can understand your bitterness toward them…and anyone who looks like them. I’m not saying that’s the reason you want that border locked down, but it’s obviously not because you think a significant percentage of them aren’t criminals. I mean, that seems to be your basis. It’s criminals coming across the border. If it’s not, and it’s mostly humble people merely fleeing a hellishly violent shit hole that is the northern Baja desert and we’re going to put a wall up to keep them there, guess we’ll have to just deal with God’s wrath.
You’re not worth the time Rob and it’s sad to see Celeste still lets you run around here spouting your racist trash. This blog has lost comments due to you Rob, hope you’re proud.
Adios boy.
Adios, amigo!
Is there any other border with as much of a contrast in skin color as the US-Mexican border? I’m thinking South Africa, maybe? Lots of borders in this world but typically people on both sides look alike. South Africa-Zimbabwe/Mozambique, et al, and the Mexican-American border? White on one side, color on the other. And, historically, what do South Africa and the United States have in common? It’s too bad you’re not here, Sure Fire, because you’d nail this one. SURFING! Duh.
I have another immigration question. I’m in LA right now, and I’ve noticed that there are nice houses being developed everywhere. Whole brand new neighborhoods, all up the grapevine, Magic Mountain, the northern parts of the San Fernando valley, etc. Are they building these for the illegals?