There has been a lot of chatter about those who will run (or are already running) for Governor when Arnold terms out in 2010.
In this morning’s LA Times, Tom Hayden lays out the reasons why our newly reelected mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, will assuredly run for governor, why we shouldn’t try to stop him. And what is likely to happen if and when he does.
Tom isn’t always right about absolutely everything all the time (We have been known to squabble genially when we are on gang panels together.) But he’s a big brained guy and as smart and savvy a political analyst as any you’ll ever meet. And this is an opinion piece worth reading.
Also, this morning I was musing to myself about what Laura Chick is going to be doing with her time once she’s no longer the controller, and now that she’s said she won’t be running for Wendy Greuel’s spot on the City Council.
Then as I was reading Hayden’s piece, I got it. DUH! We all know she plans to run for mayor when AV leaves. Well, if he does indeed run and is elected governor, she will run to replace him. And she has an excellent shot at winning.
Okay, well that’s one question answered anyway.
Here’ are some clips from Tom’s Op Ed:
Now that Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has won reelection, he will immediately take steps, at least behind the scenes, to run for governor of California. Those who hope otherwise have little understanding of the man or California politics.
There is a path to victory in the Democratic primary for Villaraigosa if he runs against three white male candidates: former Gov. Jerry Brown, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi. Villaraigosa will be able to claim the Latino vote — roughly 28% of primary voters — thus needing only an additional 12% to reach the 40% probably needed to succeed in a divided field. In a two-way race against Brown, on the other hand, Brown wins.
Villaraigosa, a former state Assembly speaker, has a plausible rationale. State government is more dysfunctional than ever, a mess directly attributable to Proposition 13. Then Gov.-Brown declared himself a “born-again tax cutter” and supported Proposition 13 when it passed in 1978. As a result of Proposition 13, property taxes are practically frozen not only for homeowners but for giant corporations and agribusinesses. And although it takes a legislative majority to grant a tax break, the measure requires an impossible two-thirds vote to repeal one. Consequently, state and local budgets are locked in a downward spiral, regardless of whatever stimulus funds come from Washington.
These and other dysfunctions of the state can be addressed only by calling a California constitutional convention, or so Villaraigosa might plausibly argue. He can point to many past accomplishments in his brief tenure as speaker, including historic school and environmental bonds.
This is not an endorsement, but a prediction. If Villaraigosa finally decides not to run for governor, it won’t be because he doesn’t want to. It would be because polling shows it is impossible, a career-breaker. But in a field of four, his chances look good.
L.A. needs a young, intellectual mayor — Eric Garcetti would make an excellent candidate. You should be talking about his candidacy not Laura Chick. We’ve had too many recycled politicians, it’s time for change.
Donna Myrow
Hmmm. Good point about Eric Garcetti, Donna. I think he’s great. And had I had the good sense to drink a second cup of coffee I might have remembered to say so. Thanks for bringing him up.
However, I happen to like Laura too. They have different strengths.
One important fact Hayden who I think has some missing screws in his head failed to state is Villaraigosa will get hammered for writing a letter in support of Vignali the cocaine drug kingpin that was pardoned by Clinton. This is what prevented Congressman Becerra from being appointed to a very important spot wth the Obama Team during the vetting phase. They found out about Antonio as well. Antonio is not liked by the many Latinos who voted him in office 4 years ago. He’s been a huge disappointment and Los Angeles is in the worst shape ever under his administration. There is a grass roots movement gaining steam to make it known throughout the nation what a lack of leadership this clown has made in our city. He’ll never be govenor. All his baggage will come out that local media refused to report.
Hayden is much more savvy about electoral politics when it comes to others’ careers than his own. And though I think Villaraigosa has an obligation to fulfill his term as Mayor and finish the good work he has started amid a tumultuous four years, Janet doesn’t know what she is talking about. Villaraigosa got 70.1% of the vote in the 14th Council District, despite a 16% turnout. In fact, for him to get 55% in a field of nine candidates isn’t that good — until you consider that the electorate in a 15% citywide turnout is extremely conservative and malcontented. Not much of a springboard, but a good showing.