Criminal Justice

Murder Rate in Largest U.S. Cities—Including 4 in California—Estimated to Fall This Year Says New Report

Celeste Fremon
Written by Celeste Fremon

The 2017 murder rate in the 30 largest American cities is estimated to decline by 5.6 percent by year’s end according to a newly updated report by the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU’s School of Law.

The findings released this week are based on data collected from police departments and other sources in each of the cities, including Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco.

According to researchers Ames Grawert and James Cullen the nationwide reduction is helped along by large decreases this year in Chicago and Detroit, as well as the small decreases in other cities.

The murder rate in Chicago, for example, which increased significantly in 2015 and 2016, is projected to decline by 11.9 percent in 2017. Yet it still remains 62.4 percent above 2014’s historically low levels. The murder rate in Detroit is estimated to fall by 9.8 percent. New York City’s murder rate will also decline again, to 3.3 killings per 100,000 people.

For the four California cities measured, Los Angeles is expected to show a 7.5 percent drop in its murder rate when the final numbers are in. San Diego’s murder rate is projected to fall a far more dramatic 29.7 percent, with San Jose’s coming down even more, at 33.6 percent. San Francisco showed the biggest projected dive in murders of the four California cities, with a 36.9 percent decrease.

When it came to violent crime in general, there was less consistency among the state’s four cities. Los Angeles, San Jose, and San Francisco are projected to rise somewhat over 2016 rates, with a 4.7 percent rise for LA, 2.0 percent in San Jose, and 1.4 percent for San Francisco.

San Diego, in contrast, showed an estimated 4.0 percent reduction in violent crime.

Nationwide, there was similar inconsistency, from city to city. Yet, overall, violent crime in the U.S. is expected to drop 1.1 percent when this year’s final numbers are in.

“These findings,” wrote the authors, “directly undercut any claim that the nation is experiencing a crime wave.”

With this statement, the researchers may be referring to remarks that U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions made last Tuesday when he seemed to ignore his own Department of Justice statistics by telling a Baltimore crowd that there had been a 13 percent spike in the violent crime rate, never mind that the DOJ report he was citing said there had been no measurable change.

In September we wrote about, the Brennan Center’s preliminary report, which analyzed available crime data from the same 30 cities, estimating that these cities would see a slight decline in all measures of crime in 2017. However, in those early estimates LA’s murder rate was expected to go up, in contrast with this week’s updated stats, which predict that 7.5 percent drop.

This analysis updates the September report with more recent data to find the murder rate estimates noted above. Yet, as researchers Grawert and Cullen also note, “murder rates in some cities remain above 2015 levels, demonstrating a need for evidence-based solutions to violent crime in these areas.”

39 Comments

  • “These findings directly undercut any claim that the nation is experiencing a crime wave”. Perhaps,but these findings do bolster the claim that 2016 did contain a significant spike in murder. It was the last year of the Obama collapse ,it contained “black lives matter”, nonstop anti law enforcement rhetoric, and lots of racial hostility. 2016 was the butchers bill that led to the Trump presidency, so it wasn’t all bad.

  • Major Kong, “perhaps?” Are you really conceding that all your previous rants about the nation falling into lawless chaos were nonsense? “Nonstop anti law enforcement rhetoric?” Stop being so thin skinned. How about anti-shooting black men? I know, I know, they were up to no good. And, 2016 had lots “of racial hostility?” Not, like this year, right. What you mean, is that last year, there were a lot of pissed off white people, and they were pissed at black and brown people. Now, I assume, they are not as pissed given Trump is in office. Boy, if for nothing else but the ability to put coherent sentences together, I wish we had Obama. Hell, at this point I would settle for Bush 2, who can give Trump English lessons. Merry Christmas.

    • Cf, and yet crime is down this year under the Orange hair devil. (According to this article) Wanna bring back Obama? Guess the body count isn’t high enough for you eh? kind of a high price to pay for a lot of empty flowery rhetoric.

      • The truest conservatives are quietly cringing with Trump in office. His shenanigans are never ending. Until he’s out of there, even his own party has to “grin & bear it”….. ask Ted Cruz. Speaking of putting coherent sentences together, Trump’s forefinger and thumb connection when he attempts to make a point is is pure comedy.

        • Truth. I support most of what he has done and the direction we seem to be going. Now, if he would only shut up and stay off Twitter………sigh.

        • Let us not forgot President Trump was not the anointed “establishment” Republican the party originally gave a nod to. His election was a referendum on the establishment politicians of both parties.

          The conservatives may be cringing as you say, but a majority of the American people (republican and democrat) wanted an ant-establishment politician since neither party offered up any traditional politician worth 02 cents. If the parties don’t get their acts together, President Trump will win again.

  • I would like to know who’s crystal ball they’re consulting with. I want to schedule an appointment with this person!

  • Major Kong, I would bring back Obama, if for no other reason than this current president is an embarrassment. He cannot put a coherent sentence together, he thinks Frederick Douglas is still alive, he thinks Putin did not get involve with our elections because he told him so, twice, and global warming is good because its very cold outside.

    Now, if you like him because he talks shit about blacks and Mexicans and everyone else who isn’t white, say so. I can respect that. But, you must admit, his is the dumbest, sorriest excuse for a president in a hell of a long time. And, I am including Bush 2.

    And, Major Kong, your and your fellow LOE’s jobs are secured. No need to keep bringing out the false narrative about crime going up. Nationwide, on average, it is the lowest it has been in 30+ years. Stop it already. And, the fact that its down, its not due to the great orange commander. Correlation does not equal causation. I do not think you are that dumb.

    • CF….you still spew liberal nonsense. President Obama was the biggest pushover, appeaser and back room deal maker. Let’s not forget his promise he made Putin when he though the microphone was off to take care of things, wink, wink, nod, nod, once he got in office. His empty threat to Syrian regarding the “crossing of a red line”, the use of chemical gas against the Syrian people and his do nothing , wait and see approach.

      What about the capture of our sailors by the Iranians, their subsequent parading on television and our payment of “their money” in the amount of hundreds of millions of dollars to a hostile regime. What about President Obama enabling ICE to deport more illegal aliens than any other president in history.

      President Obama started out as a moderate but morphed into a left wing liberal during his second term. He bowed to the demands of special interest groups and led by executive order when he saw Congress oppose him at every turn. You can long for the nostalgia of his administration but the country needed a course “correction”.

  • Bravo CF…nice to learn a little more about you and where your insights are rooted.

    Thanks for educating me and telling me “how and what I think”. This is typical of you liberal/progressive/socialist types who think they know know “what’s best for the masses” and are the enlightened ones. This slave-holder, “big government mindset” is why the democrats lost the last election and showed how TrueType out of touch they were with not only their fellow Democrats in the middle of the country, but the majority of the US citizenry.

    I was brought up to be proud of my country, what it stands for and willing to fight for the freedoms and way of life we enjoy. If our forefathers (not yours) had not been wiling to lay down their lives for this countries beliefs, were would we be know…an English, French, German, Japanese colony or part of Mexico. Wars were fought and lives lost by people motivated by pride in their homeland to prevent a world domination by truly evil forces.

    Just as I tell folks I encounter who are in bad, toxic relationshipsif, if you despise the other person that much do something about it and leave. Why stay with someone if you hate them and what they stand for so much. Hint…Hint. You remain and are able to criticize in this country because the people who fought for its very existence afford you that right.

    Oh, I fault no one who immigrates to this country who uses and respects our present rules and laws. If they respect this country, it’s history and don’t try to create a seperate “Homeland” of their own within this country I can respect them as an American.

    I, like many of my fellow state, county and local government workers do receive our pay from the government and pay taxes as well. As you referred to as the “dole”, it is not surprising as you your disdain for public services workers is very much apparent. I hope you never ever have to utilize these workers who live off the “dole” as you call it. I hope are politicians and military hear this too, as they are free loaders as well. Capitalism ensures corporate, business taxes and property taxes (because people can own property in a capitalist country) from land owners contribute to the money pool more than your income tax.

    Unlike you, I like a well functioning balanced government and even agreed with moderates like Bill Clinton, Gray Davis and even President Obama’s before he caved to the special interest groups towards the end of his last term. You see…I can think as an individual and not be spoon feed the party line, and rehash the scripted talking points like you and your condescending liberal, fascist brethren.

    Oh, the ACLU was once an organization that did fight for workers rights and those of deserving under-represented groups but it has degenerated into something totally different. Once it ran out of causes to fight for it seems to have lost its way and went into the field of “ambulance chasing”.

    I am grateful for my family, friends and the my job. I get to help people everyday. I’m sure that’s more than what you can say.

    Wow…..burn a cross somewhere…you are a childish, stupid piece of work. Back to name calling. I hope your parents or whatever you crawled out of are proud of you.

    Merry Christmas to you…..your probably an atheist though.

  • My favorite thing about Trump is the deranged state he’s sending liberals into. Check out the cognitive dissonance occurring in cf’s brain. He’s hallucinating I said the exact opposite of what I did say and then arguing with that. Of course cf is the guy who put down people for regularly commenting on this blog, in one of his umpteenth comments on this blog. Poor awkward, confused, fragile, angry little cf . You know from here on,things are only going to get worse-for you.

  • Conspiracy, damn, you have drunk the kool aid-“Wars were fought and lives lost by people motivated by pride in their homeland.” Thank you, Hitler youth, that is a great reason to fight a war. And, “to prevent a world domination by truly evil forces?” Are you serious, Erik Trump? I’m sure the Iraqis were ready to dominate the world when we invaded. You drank the kool aid. They did nothing to the US, nothing. I know, I know, we got that “weapons of mass destruction shit” wrong. Get over it, right. And, the Vietnamese, too, with those hi-tech sandals and straw hats they wore, they were going to take over the world. Lets go back a bit, to Korea. Those Koreans were all over the world. Hell, had we not fought in Korea, we would be singing Gangnam Style. Unless, you fought in World War II against the Germans, you should be quiet and sit down.

    And, so much for being a great fighter. We still can’t get it right in Afghanistan, fighting against regular joes in sandals and eating sand, and they still kick our ass. How about those Vietnamese. You had 100 lbs of gears, tanks, helicopters, and these guys have a straw hat, sandals, a pouch of rice and an AK, and they still send us packing. Yes, you and your ilk make great soldiers. So much for pride and country. You have that same blind faith that causes a Saudi kid to get in plane and fly it into a building. Don’t think you are much better, you think the same but don’t have the balls.

    Major Kong, “cognitive dissonance?” Impressive. Now, if you can only use it in a proper sentence. Perhaps in between throwing away a street vendor’s food or harassing black kids you can pick up a book. Merry Christmas, gentleman. I’m looking forward to your kernels of wisdom in 2018.

  • CF…..everything you said from referencing the Hitler Youth and Koreans affirms my belief and assertion that you are 1) a crack pot 2) a card carrying socialist/communist 3) ANTIFA/George Soros loving IDIOT.

    Merry Christmas and God Bless our country and all it stands for.

  • CF: Iraq invaded Kuwait, were torturing and killing their people. But that’s ok, cause you weren’t victimized. The killing fields in Laos were also ok, cause you and your family were bundled up tight in your homes free from foreign invasion. The Taliban chop the heads off of everyone that doesn’t act the way they do. But that’s ok, cause you live in a country where you can believe and practice as you see fit. As long as you’re not affected, we should just mind our own business and let the people who aren’t blessed to live here to just be slaughtered!! Fucking coward!!!

  • Jesus, Ownership, no need to resort to vicious name calling. What is this, “fucking coward” name-calling? Would you support an invasion of the US by the Russians for the many killings of blacks at the hands of the police? To paraphrase MLK, our government is the biggest purveyor of violence. How about invading Russia for what they have done in Ukraine and Crimea? I doubt you are that brave. Those Russians aren’t sandal-wearing hut dwellers and they will teach you a lesson, boy. How about the Chinese? When will you sign up to fight them for the invasion of Tibet and the murder of the people of Tibet. Those Chinese will stick a nuke up your ass. Not so brave, anymore. Did you also support the invasion of South Africa for their treatment and murder of blacks during its pre-Mandela days. I did not think so, you hypocrite.

    Ownership, again, so that you not pull shit out of your ass, please put down the donuts and pick up a book, or at least, google shit. The US supported and armed the Taliban, you idiot. Ok for them to fight the Russians because we did not have the balls to do it. Also, there were no killing fields in Laos, although we bombed the shit out of them in a “secret war.” Secret, because the US refused to acknowledge the bombing, and we did it to Cambodia, also. The term “Killing Fields” is usually used in reference to Cambodia during the Khmer Rouge. We, the US, did not bomb during that time. It was prior to the take over of the Khmer Rouge and we did it because the NVA and Viet Cong, who ultimately kicked our ass and sent us packing, were using trails in neighboring nations to get weapons into Vietnam. In fact, you ignorant hill billy, we, the US, supported the Khmer Rouge when they were murdering their people (hence, the killing fields). It was the Vietnamese who put a stop to it.

    You are tough when you pick on emaciated Arabs and Muslims, sandal-wearing Asians in South East Asia or Black kids in the hood. Go fight the Russians and Chinese. That would be impressive. Otherwise, stop being a bully and eat your donuts, you fucking coward.

  • Many killings of Blacks by the police? It was a Black guy that walked into a Lakeland, Washington coffee shop and assassinated 4 police officers before shift in 2009! Obama and Holder never said a word about it but thankfully he was killed the next day. It was another Black guy that hunted down cops in Dallas last year killing 5 in one day wanting to kill as many Whites as he could especially White cops as he could but thankfully he got taken out. They’re not the only two I could speak on and the vast majority of people cops kill are doing what CF, walking down the street minding their own business? Go ahead and try to make that ridiculous point! As it is, this year alone just about 50% of cops gunned down have been gunned down by male Blacks, less than 7% of the population. Go ahead and make excuses for them CF like Obama, Holder, Lynch, Celeste and the entire left does day after day not giving a damn when a cop gets slain! Try to convince the actual thinking population through the media portrayals shoved down our throats that we don’t know the truth about where the problem lies. You are a giant coward, live with it.

    • @ Surefire, The only surety of you is burning in Hell. You’re fast to point out Cops killed by Blacks but you’re mum on Whites killing Cops. You, like a typical lying thin veiled racist coward remind me of Michael Slager who killed Walter Scott in South Carolina. You’re a big blowhard on paper.

    • Sure Fire, you should know that it was a Republican Governor, Mike Huckabee, who commuted the cop killer’s 95 year sentence and set him free. You can also Google or YouTube the many occasions where Obama issued a statement condemning the killing of cops. That RWNJ claim has been thoroughly discredited, but remains alive in the right wing echo chamber. If you think more than half the country doesn’t give a damn about cops being killed in the line of duty, I would recommend you switch to decaf, find a hobby like knitting, and seek professional therapy. You will live longer and enjoy your retirement.

  • CF……you truly need psychiatric help. Although by your neurotic “rants”, you are probably already under the care of a mental health professional. If not, LA County jail or any of the County hospital, and clinics have plenty of mental health professionals (paid for with your TAX DOLLARS) at your disposal. You probably think the employees are lazy, incompetent, “quacks” since they are working on the “dole” as you say.

    Although, I highly doubt you really have a job and anybody would risk employing anyone with your mental instability and temperament.

  • Hey Flashbacks, it’s about math you ignorant worm. Try taking a class in it I’ve explained it enough. Coward, no that be people like, your pal CF and all the little gangsters shooting up kids, mom’s and others that you bed wetters don’t care about. Now sit down and stfu.

    • It wasn’t a gangster that killed the deputy in Colorado yesterday, the shooter resembled you. Condolences for the Deputies family and so much for your racist rants. Easy to spew your sordid lifestyle and hatred on line selectively.

      • “Resembled you…” Are you saying the person was a human being…I’m confused.

        Let not work backwards and begin to make up or fabricate, or manipulate information to support our argument.

        We can let the news do that for you.

        • Follow along and read through the lines. Surefire knows exactly what I’m speaking of. He’s a long time “whining crybaby” on this blog. With free reign to talk recklessly on WLA, the same verbage would get him a “chin check” at any diversified law enforcement roll call or briefing. He wouldn’t be the first.

  • I never claimed that only Blacks killed cops you idiot, you’ll never show that I have. Simply pointed out the math, which of course you won’t debate, regarding crime in this country and use of force incidents directed at cops. The useless leftist dregs like yourself and Celeste would never debate me based on those numbers because you’d get a beat down, geez just quit it you’re getting nowhere.
    I got nowhere when I asked Celeste if anyone at WLA ever been hooked or investigated for any type of crime, wonder why? Your New Year’s resolution should be to answer that Celeste, for the sake of transparency. Have a Happy New Year everyone.

  • A chin check, my favorite partner was in 10 O.I.S’s and he looked nothing like me and felt exactly as I do. Turn your head, look the other way but the guy who cold cocked the off duty SBSO Dep over the minor TC is something we won’t hear you, Celeste, that worm CF or anyone like you speak to, you simply don’t care, it’s only lip service when you say something. But if that Dep would have cold cocked that asshole it would be all over this site and the race angle would be played up by the little girl CF and you know it so shut your weak pathetic ass up your words mean nothing, truth is what it is and as usual you and the other frauds here run from any type of real debate. F.O.

    • Very well articulated…Could not agree more with your post. Add Taylor Walker to the list. I used to enjoy reading the info exchange articulated on this blog but the level of bias presented by both the author and her POS assistant makes me want to vomit….F.O. Celeste and Taylor..

    • “Favorite partner looked nothing like me”. Really? Was he a Android? Please don’t tell me he was black. You burned out that narrative so many times. You’ll never admit it but you have a major with people of color. Your disdain of criminals will lead you to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW Washington D.C.

    • That was horrible video footage to watch. For 30 year to sucker punch a 70 year old shows a total lack of respect for elders and lack of impulse control. Should an animal like this, an I mean animal, be allowed to roam our streets and victimize decent people?

      What a way for a veteran and active member of the SBCSO to have his life taken. I applaud the honest feeling and sentiment of the San Bernardino County DA.

      If our liberal/progressive, out of touch, weed smoking elected officials in Sacramento had focused more on protecting victims, and decent law abiding citizens instead of focusing on the rights of criminals and illegal immigrants Deputy Face would probably still be alive.

      The states elected officials have blood on their hands and I hope their will be a ground swell when Governor Brown and AG Nunez come up for election to vote them out. They have been and are horrible for the once “Great State of California”.

      Let’s make California great again….

  • Yeah POC he was, a true Warrior unlike the PC types that are afraid to speak the truth about all crime, not just that crime you feel comfortable talking about. LATBG speaks about how Obama spoke about Blue, spare me. He did it always with a but….you guys need to do this or that, or act more in this way or that. Hey tell you what, trot out what he said on the last Law Enforcement Appreciation Day of his final year. Save you the time, nothing. That was after he refused to light the White House Blue as requested by cop supporters. Lit it in the colors of the Rainbow when gays got the right to marry but we see an upswing of over 60% in Blue gunned down the year before and he says “No.” Yeah, he supported us, sure he did. I don’t hate any group except pretty much the entire gutless left, one of my silly ass relatives got involved with a Nazi type, we have military and LEO’s in my family, he’s no longer an issue. Not because he’s gone but because he did a 180, people can change when they change the group they affiliate with. I fill in the spots you spineless types refuse to and would bet spend more time in the homeless areas helping people than Celeste and anyone on her staff. Yeah, I’m a real racist because I throw stuff out there that still not one of you have argued is wrong with any facts. Do that ok, just once show something I’ve posted is wrong factually and I’ll correct it, till then F.O. light weights.

  • Oh POC I hate bad guys with a real passion because I’ve seen the tremendous harm they’ve done for a long time. Unlike Celeste who loves to make excuses for their behavior and some of the others who back her I know good people do lots better in life when bad people are locked down. You can only use the circumstances of your own life so long before you have to change or society has to put you where you’re not a problem anymore.

  • I’m sitting on the edge of my chair in anticipation of the article surround the incident with the San Bernardino County off duty deputy who was killed by the career criminal.

    Even if it’s rationalized it’s not news worth on this since Deputy Falce was off duty, it should still merit coverage based on the p.o.s. being released early due to our legislators and resulting change in the law. On top of that, this affected one of our senior citizens.

    Common…CF…OOPs!…Celeste…we’re all waiting.

    • EDITOR’S NOTE:

      Dear “Conspiracy,”

      Of course the murder of Deputy Falce is news, terrible and tragic news. We tweeted about his death, but admittedly we haven’t written about it here WLA. Thank you for calling this to our attention. I notice that Deputy Falce was 70, years old, but stayed on the job driving a patrol car, because he loved the work. It was also interesting that several witnesses to the fatal assault against Deputy Falce were extremely proactive in trying to keep the suspect at the scene and, failing that, and made sure that police had the needed information to find and arrest the suspect. Thanks again for your comment.

    • @ Surefire,
      Not only are you a angry demented White male, you’re also a cyber stalker. Celeste is rooted in your noggin for life.
      LMAO!

  • You’re right, my apologies Celeste. No Still Laughing, simply checked her Twitter feed A.H. Now quick as you called me on it Celeste funny how you continue to avoid my other question.

  • By the way Still Laughing, you’re a cowardly little racist who couldn’t debate a thing I say if you’re life depended on it. As for Celeste, she avoids and avoids a simple request, wonder why?

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